A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
