Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
